Has the "Green Revolution" Come and Gone? (for now)
Did the "Green Revolution" peak a little while ago?
It's hard for me to pinpoint the exact moment when it peaked, but there does seem to be te feeling that the momentum has trailed off.
It seemed to have peaked in the middle of the recession when fear was also peaking.
Was it the Sequester? Once people started thinking the rate of wild spending was slowing it was going to effect subsidies.
My personal feeling is that it's probably best that the government gets out of EV's.
At the end of all this we hope that some small percentage will survive (after a wasteful bootstrap startup by government) and in the future market forces drive this to success.
Tesla is an example of where we want things to go... smart, and hopefully successful.
I see this as being like the dot.coms...
It began with a flurry of outside money that got people "thinking" along the lines of the internet. As long as "funny money" drove the startups people were capable of silly thinking (unrelated to the goal) and most of the bad ideas drove things into bankruptcy. But after all the unwise were ruined the survivors who were wise were able to capitalize on the situation and become successful.
So in a way the stress of actually making a profit permits the "fitting" to survive while the delusional die off.
Which means we should be pleased... the foolish are dying off...
When the government subsidies the delusional dreams it mearly "enables" waste.
However... as a sort of "bootstrap" funding source the government is just as good as a venture capitalist. But no matter the source there is always a time when the "funny money" needs to dry up in order to open the way for the next phase. That seems where we are now. The Fiskers of the world are doomed to fail while the Teslas are likely to excel.
To use a bible phrase:
"Wide is the gate that leads to (delusional thinking) destruction. Narrow is the gate that leads to wisdom."
...only the wise survive.
The Coming Day of Exclusion
Success is a scary thing.
If Tesla becomes successful without the nanny state holding it up then people will start to view Tesla as just another successful corporation.
This will alienate the hardcore "eco-revolutionaries" who have a deep distrust of corporations that are profitable.
Many would prefer the notion that "government creates success", but the example of Tesla is that smart corporations create success.
...not how many wanted to see this end. (my guess)
The end of the year is a good time to evaluate whether your own predictions were any good.
I'm not seeing any revival of government funding for a "Green Revolution".
Obama is suffering from a multitude of problems and seems bogged down. His popularity has sunk to equal to where GW Bush was at the same time in his second term. (and that was considered shocking back then)
We might even be seeing a cultural change where "trust" in government funded solutions is falling.
So I think my prediction from near the beginning of the year was right. Government is getting out of it and business is taking over. The future will be the "best and brightest" of business.