Project Better Place

A friend of mine lent me his copy of The Economist which has an article on Shai Agassi or Project Better Place. It's a great article and in the opening blurb it makes a great (but brief) comparison between Agassi and Jobs. That comparison is one that I think will play out in more than one way – I think Better Place may become the Apple of the EV world – they may very well end up with a well designed and workable CLOSED system. And, just like Apple is never more than a niche player in the personal computing product space Better Place will never be more than a niche in the EV world. But that’s OK – Agassi will still have realized his goal and made the world a better place.

However, I think the illustrious Mr Agassi is dead wrong when it comes to the two "inherent drawbacks" that the article reports Agassi thinks "will not vanish soon" which are battery limitations and high-speed charging:

First batteries.
a. Battery prices are falling already.
b. LiFePO4 is currently the best chemistry for automotive use – it’s widely seen as “good enough” (i.e. you can build an affordable 100 mph / 100 mile range car around a LiFePO4 pack).
c. There are two major classes of manufacturers of LiFePO4:
i. "High-end / high-tech / high-expense" – the likes of Valence and A123 fall into this category. They have specialized processes that eek the most out of LiFePO4
ii. "Low-end / low-expense" – I guess Agassi doesn’t like the Chinese. There are numerous Chinese manufacturers that make "adequate" LiFePO4 batteries. Not as good as the high-end – but they are good enough.
d. The price for the low-end continues to fall. A couple of years ago it was about $3 per Ah. Today, at wholesale rates, I can buy FOB China for much less than that. If I can buy in my quantity at my "good price" I’m sure Agassi could buy for a good 20% less than me.
e. The price of the raw materials is cheap and the materials are abundant. This is an important one! Lead and Nickle are expensive and getting more so. The price of these metals appear to be a key driver in the price of the associated batteries. However, Lithium and Iron are cheap and don’t appear to be a main driver in the price. Thus, as demand grows supply can grow fast and prices can be driven down further.
f. Of course there are also lots of people working on building the better battery. EVs are energy storage agnostic. When the batteries (or energy storage device) get better then the cars will improve – be that range or cost.

Next high-speed charging.
a. Duh! This one is really either just plain salesmanship BS or he’s not very smart… (I know which one I believe)
b. If you can have a network of battery change stations with an investment in expensive batteries then you can have a quick charge network with an investment in less expensive batteries to store the power to charge the cars. You transfer the power from the storage batteries into the car batteries – you don’t transfer it from the grid (well, at least not at speed – the storage batteries will be recharged in the same way as however he plans to keep the auto batteries charged and ready for swapping).
c. Battery swapping is a classic case of clever engineers designing a solution for a problem that doesn’t exist!
d. We do need common forms of charging – but that is already being addressed by folks like IEEE working on a standard charge port.
e. Why is a fast-charge station better than a battery swap station:
i. You only need to make the plug common not the pack. This allows engineers much more latitude when designing a vehicle
ii. To create a charge-station you only need to invest in "energy storage batteries" and then can service any vehicle with a standard charge port (Agassi’s cars are likely to have that standard port)
iii. "Energy Storage Batteries" (ESB) for the charge-station can be optimized for use in a stationary setup which is a far easier environment to engineer for than for automotive use. Thus the ESB should be cheaper per kWh than an automobile’s pack.
f. Why is battery-swapping better than fast-charging:
i. It has the “gee whizz” capability of a really fast charge without leaving your car. We probably can’t get a 40 second recharge (and they can swap batteries in 40 seconds). But I can do a 20 minute fast charge today and there are 10 minute solutions out there now (currently in the high-end world) and 5 minute solutions around the corner (check out MIT for some of the latest in battery developments). As for not getting out of the car – I’m sure it must be easier to design an automatic plug in mechanism than an automatic battery changing mechanism.
ii. ??? I really can't think of another reason why battery swapping is better than fast charging

What is the real value of a 40 second battery change while sitting in your car? It’s nice, it’s convenient – but is it worth saddling the EV industry with a vision that this is a MUST DO?

So, I have a real love-hate feeling towards Agassi:

1) I love the fact that we’ve got someone as capable as him making EV stuff happen

2) I hate the fact that his base assumptions are wrong and he’s so committed to a path that he seems reluctant to change (so instead he will continue to perpetuate the myth that the battery price and the charge time are big nasty roadblocks and that he has the only solution)

And the thing that makes my blood boil is when he’s arrogant enough to assign all arguments against his particular vision to those "with vested interest in cars powered by fossil fuels". What an arrogant SOB! (Just like Jobs can be too!)

At the end of the day you need the superstars like Jobs and Agassi – but along with their brilliance come their flaws.

Ho hum...