2010-2011 could end up being a huge year for EVs and PHEVs. Curious what people think will be the big winners Cars, Motorcycles, or Vans and then which one in that catagorey.
Will it be Cars Like...
The Nissan Leaf
Coda
Volt
Wheego
etc
Zap
Or electric Vans
Smith Electric
Ford Transit
Or ev motorcycles like
Brammo
Vetrix
Zero
etc
I think it could be the Leaf because of price and first to market or Vans like the Smith Electric Vehicles.
-Paul
Publisher of EV headline site http://theecogiftsource.typepad.com/ev_news/
Personally, I think it will be the Current Motor Company's C1x range of bikes.
But then I might be the tiniest little bit biased.
John H. Founder of Current Motor Company - opinions on this site belong to me; not to my employer
Remember: " 'lectric for local. diesel for distance" - JTH, Amp Bros || "No Gas.
You've named off several different categories and are looking at this the wrong way around.
a) winner in "car" space
b) winner in commercial truck space
c) winner in motorcycles
d) winner in bicycles
They're separate spaces and should be considered separately. The person looking for an electric car won't end up with an electric motorcycle (usually). And neither are going to buy mid-size trucks of the kind Smith or Balqon etc build
I've driven or been in Coda, Wheego and Leaf .. they're all good in their own ways.
The Brammo Enertia looks real solidly built in person but I've not ridden one. The Zero bikes are solid and powerful. None of the electric motorcycles are of the cruiser style I prefer so maybe I'll have to build one ;-) or else get a proper scooter.
- David Herron, The Long Tail Pipe, davidherron.com, 7gen.com, What is Reiki
I think the biggest space will be commercial vehicles, especially delivery ones. The bean-counters within fleet-owning industries are going to be very aware of the cost of fuel and such, and are able to correctly evaluate the cost of ownership against the cost of purchase. Look for FedEx, UPS, and USPS to be big movers here, and therefore any vehicle that suits their needs.
Cars will be the second big space, and probably the Nissan Leaf will lead the pack (at least for the next year).
Two wheel vehicles have always been, and always will be, a smaller world. The increased personal risk from not riding in a safety cage is probably a big impediment here. I do think that higher-speed electrics are going to be the next thing in this space, rather than the small scooter or ebike. And I do feel that the scooter body is more practical for commuters than the motorcycle body, though consumers often have a mental blind spot when it comes to large and fast scooters. I'm hoping to see CuMoCo to become a significant player in that space, but a post-bankruptcy Vectrix with a lithium upgrade could be a really strong contender.
My electric vehicle: CuMoCo C130 scooter.
Thanks for the responses and how about the news with Toyota and Tesla! I guess I shouldn't have been surprised by that but I figured that Toyota would create most of their tech inhouse. But that could signify that the ev movement is moving fast and you have to team up to keep up!
Time will tell....
Paul
http://evnews.theecogiftsource.com/
Tesla and Toyota make for a very interesting combo.
I've always thought that Tesla was part of a very smart plan: start with a very expensive vehicle in order to fund your R&D. The first vehicles are, by necessity, nearly hand-built, so you might as well make them very exclusive and expensive. As you climb the learning curve, you figure out how to make the system work at a cheaper price, and in higher quantities. Start with a $100k+ roadster, move to a $50k+ sedan, and then there will be a third model at a much more mass-market price ($30k??). Adding Toyota into the picture makes that third model far easier to achieve, but it's still 3-4 years down the road. I have no doubt it'll be a very competitive choice, but we still have to wait a few years to see it.
However, other big car companies will have a couple years head start over Tesla, like the Nissan Leaf. The next gen Leaf will probably compete nicely with a Toyota/Tesla 3rd model. Personally, I think that's great, since we'll have the luxury of choice between at least two quality vehicles.
My electric vehicle: CuMoCo C130 scooter.
I think Mike's analysis is quite right. For years I have advocated that the real progress in EV adoption would come from the Light Commercial market. The leader in this field is Ford, both form it's long association with Smith, and it's own development program.
Smaller players, outside the US have built impressive numbers of EV's, Groupil from France and Allied in UK. For all the excitement generated by would be EV car makers,Ford and other commercial vehicles have been quietly producing functioning EV's, in respectable numbers for some years, ignored by EV supporters.
Mike is quite right when he state that it's easier to sell the economic benefits of an EV as a work tool, especially when the decision maker isn't the driver!
When it comes to Cars, Mitsubishi's iMev is selling quite impressive early numbers despite the high price. The Nissan/Citroen Leaf, is the most functional, cheapest of the majors. The Ford Focus EV, may yet prove to be a winner, especially if the mooted special battery plan is introduced. Australians and NZers, have been able to purchase Hyundai Getz EV, from an Australian Hyundai authorised converter for the last 4 years. Named the 'Blade Electron' and offering nearly the same real road quality and performance as iMev, the little Hyundai EV, 4 door, 4 seater, would retail in the US for around 50% the price of an iMev and includes a 5 year warranty.
Range extended vehicle like Prius and Volt will be major contenders.
The two-wheel market market is relatively small in ICE, the high cost of EV versions will be an even smaller speciality market again.
Bikes, I know nothing about!
marcopolo